Unlike many of the other States in Nigeria, Osun is usually politically undecided, and this makes the forthcoming gubernatorial election a dicey affair. It is a State with a comfortable claim to being a swing State in the country. In the last 20 years, the State has behaved differently per electoral cycle. Between the 2007 Oyinlola-Aregbesola controversial election, the litigation of which made Osun guber off cycle, to Adeleke-Oyetola repeated rounds of 2018 and 2022, Osun has had a history that is largely a record of electoral instability. In less than one month, one of the incumbent Ademola Adeleke, Bola Oyebamiji or Najeem Salaam, will likely be the next Governor; the question is, what manner of choices are there before the voters in the election?
To start with, the three major contenders are in for a battle of continuity and sustainability of their political institutions, as opposed to governance and leadership. Ademola Adeleke, the dancing Governor who rode on the mysticism of his late brother Isiaka Adeleke, has the personal need to complete his own terms. Ambitious as he is, he has switched party allegiance to give it "what it takes". Bola Oyebamiji, the APC candidate who is best described as a foster contestant for former Governor Isiaka Oyetola, is his party's face of authority and Federal might at best. Najeem Salam, the former Speaker of the State House of Assembly and an ally of former Governor Rauf Aregbesola, is the third major candidate in an election that is practically a two-horse race. He is a man with ambition that is more of an expression of political vendetta than of value, standing to advance the charge of his former principal.
The political posturing of the three candidates, especially the first two, has been nothing but a game of desperation. It is not about who has the best ideas but who can outplay whom. While outplaying a political opponent is the norm of partisanship, outplaying based on workable leadership ideas appears to not be the forte of the candidates. The gameplay had always been there but it came to its peak with the debacle over Local Government Chairmanship and the court ruling in 2025. In the past one year, various times theatrics have been mounted at Local Government Secretariats in the State. The Local Government autonomy appears to have aggravated the vested interest of either of the two divides to be in control. The forthcoming election will therefore also include an unofficial vote for the legitimacy of any party that produces the Governor.
One would be right to argue that the position of a court of competent jurisdiction would overrule political manoeuvres. Political manoeuvres in Nigeria are, however, mostly above the law. Since the ruling of the court last year, the situation in the Local Governments remains an impasse. The political parties may identify as new or renewed but they have only pursued old orders of cash-and-carry, emilokan politics, which is why judgements count for nothing unless they satisfy their interest. Issues of security, for instance, given the closeness of Osun to Kwara, a State where bandits have attacked, are not popular on campaign trains. This was a State where parents were running helter-skelter only less than a month ago, for fear of bandit attacks in schools.
The institutional weakness is not only with the courts; the electoral umpire in charge has its shortcomings too. As of the time of writing this article, INEC has not shared PVC to eligible voters who registered or modified their data in the 2025-2026 registration window. A check done by this author at the INEC office in Ifelodun Local Government of the State for the past two months confirms this situation. With the election less than a month away, it is disappointing that INEC has yet to produce voters cards for affected people. Considering that Osun is one of the States with the highest number of applicants for PVC, one expects that INEC would have allowed a longer window for the distribution of PVC.
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Should the tardiness of INEC lead to voter disenfranchisement, it will limit the number of people with voting power in a State where the last two gubernatorial elections have been dramatic. It should be recalled that in 2018, after a slew of reruns, Gboyega Oyetola only won with a margin of 482 over Ademola Adeleke. That was at a time when APC in the State was not fractured. In 2022, the crack in the APC and the personal rebranding of Adeleke's candidacy ensured the defeat of the incumbent, with 28, 000 in margin of victory. These defeats and comebacks cannot be overlooked in the coming election, because the factors that contributed to them are still in the political scene in the State.
Ọgbẹni Raufu Aregbesola's breakaway from Bola Ahmed Tinubu's political dynasty is a telling development on the APC in Osun State. A man who once adored Asiwaju now finds himself in the opposition to his government. The political damage that he and his henchmen do to Tinubu's chances are too consequential. This was evident in the voting pattern in Osun guber 2022 and the Presidential Election in 2023. Najeem Salaam's votes in this election may not be enough to win him the seat, but they may be just enough to stop Ambo from winning. This would mean that the Adeleke political dynasty gains more.
Also of importance in determining the outcome of this election is the economic viability of the State. Under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and indeed under Governor Ademola Adeleke, the economic prosperity of Osun State has not been any better. Commoners, a.k.a. the majority of voters, still wallow in substandard living. The choice before them is not just about governance, it is also about survival. And yet, none is an easy path. It is a State where when civil servants do not get paid, the citizenry feels the brunt almost instantly, where reliance on industrial concentration and private companies to generate revenue is not enough to cater to domestic needs. The Federal Allocation and expenditure by the State Government play a central role in the economic well-being of Osun indigenes.
When Osun voters decide between Adeleke and Oyebamiji, they are deciding between the bad and the bad. Adeleke makes Osun a good hell because, with him, the dichotomy between the State and the Federal Government subsists. And if there is anything for sure about Tinubu, it is that his loyalists come first (which explains why he will not declare a State of Emergency when governance is in a stalemate for nearly a year in the grassroots in Osun). Ambo makes Osun a bad paradise because, beyond securing the State for APC, he brings a dangerous restart to what should otherwise continue. Like Oyetola, the inclination to abandon the projects of the previous administration is sure. When Oyetola won, road projects uncompleted by Aregbesola's administration, and a host of others, were abandoned, left to deteriorate. Policies driving such initiatives like O'Yes, which empowered the citizens, were weakened or reversed.
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In a larger consideration, between Osun State gubernatorial election and the Presidential Election, there are only five months. The most dangerous thing that Bola Ahmed Tinubu can allow or sponsor in this election is a forced installation of Oyebamiji as Governor of Osun State. 2018 is fresh in public memory, for all its controversies. Tinubu must know that the implications that a peaceful election or otherwise in Osun holds are not just about him or his party, but about democracy and Nigeria. Already, there have been killings and attacks, events reminiscent of the 2007 Osun guber election. Here is a State in a repeated cycle of the incumbent and the main contender in endless combat. Introducing the "Federal Might" to it will leave blood on the streets and agonies in families where things are hardly easy already.
In reality, who Osun votes in for Governor may not affect who they vote for President; it happened with Nuhu Ribadu once and it may happen again. There are local issues that inform voter behaviors in Osun that are sensitive and may be affected with the use of force. For instance, in Ikirun and Ifelodun Local Government, the intrusion of political figures in the kingship process of Akinrun will have a major effect, one that is primarily unconnected to 2027 political projection. Violence is too expensive to be afforded in the election, and one hopes that no one is willing to pay for it with citizens' lives. Quite a lot is dependent on how INEC and other stakeholders key into democratic ethos, how the political fissures of parties are tamed, and whether Tinubu has any interest in forcibly installing his cousin's protégé. Indeed, every outcome will inspire a consequential public perception of electoral fairness. What is ultimately sure is that, if it stands to reason to voters in Osun State that a candidate is forced on them, the Presidential Election will be a point of mass response. It is best if the polity is not heated.
Kudos
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