By Taofeek Ọlálékan Ògúnpérí
In Robert Greene's popular book The 48 Laws of Power, controversial as it is, there are certain indelible lessons that apply to the latest development in Osun State, post-guber elections. Some of these lessons are results of people's values, while the inadequacies of the main contender ensure some, and, not in the least, the strengths of the previously most probable and now the winning side complete the set. The most obvious lesson is that power belongs to the people, but there are many questions, chief of which is this: in the face of intense person-to-person, even moneyed, campaigns, in a constricting economy, why (not how) did Osun voters choose the dancing governor again?
So much depends on reputation—guard it with your life. That is the 5th Law of Greene's The 48 Laws of Power. For the people of Osun, reputation is tied to sectional sentiments and sociocultural values. As a candidate seeking the support of the people, your best chances are assured by how you help protect what is sentimentally valuable to the people. Money is valuable, no doubt, but in Osun State, how you have spent your money on an ordinary day to help popular causes matters more than how you spend it in a political period. If, at the unfortunate end, you have previously chosen to spend your money to lessen the essence of a tradition, you will pay for it too.
In my hometown, Ikirun, since the death of Akinrun of Ikirun, Oba Olayiwola Olawale Adedeji II MFR in 2020, the town and the local government have been driven to tread sentimental terrains. Until early this year, there were two leading candidates to the throne. One of them was (and is) favored by the APC, the other, which a vast majority of townspeople supported, was not. After the 2022 gubernatorial election, they unsuccessfully tried to install him as king. In the build-up to 2026, this was the deciding factor in Ikirun and Ifelodun Local Government, the 7th most populous voter base in Osun. APC was evidently alleged to actively engage in violence and intimidation to launder favor for their preferred candidate. It followed an unusual, never-seen-before “cast your vote” kingmaking process that divided even the kingmakers, some of whom were said to have been bribed.
With the introduction of mainstream political partisanship, the contest became intense and a few individuals were killed. There were also several attempts to coerce or kill notable individuals. My father, who is a chieftain and an influential figure, was nearly killed. Consequently, he, my mother, my brother and the rest of my immediate family living in our family house went into exile. This pattern was repeated in several families (and in some other towns). APC broke the cultural norm in Ikirun, and this gave them the reputation of power usurper. They rendered people refugees even while they still inhabited their own houses. Voting against APC was not necessarily voting against Ambo, or voting for Ademola Adeleke (using Aregbesola as a standard, he is still far behind)—it was sentimentally for the preservation of the throne and the peace of Ikirun, which was shared in the local government.
For APC, as a party in Osun State, reputation remains an unguarded staple even within their own ranks. It began after the rise of the party in 2015 to national prominence. Between 2015 and 2018, APC went from the party at the centre of power in Osun to the party clinging to it, much of it due to its failing intra-party democracy. The infamous 2018 rerun election was the height of it. That election remains, for Osun residents, a reference to what APC is after, what they can do and what they will always do. After that election, which was a case of wringing out favors from unlikely alliances, it stands against logic that APC still managed to continue to tank Osun. In so doing, they procured the disloyalty of people and key figures who helped upturn the 2018 guber and could have gone ahead to make the party strong.
There is Aregbesola whose election in 2014 was one of their first party victories. There is also Iyiola Omisore and his political power bloc, whom the APC patronises like a harlot good only for sex but never for marriage. It appears that since the party won in 2015, most APC members think their party is indispensable, unconditionally loved, always forgiven. They are not—no party is. Erring on the side of the people and some of the people who put their goodwill at stake to make them accepted by the people are two reputation damaging conditions that APC in Osun is trapped in. It does not help them that the aforementioned have been compounded by the uninspiring performance of Oyetola and his desperate antics to vicariously lead through his cronies—first, through local government chairpersons, then through Ambo.
Is Ambo aware that he is no more than a prop, not a contestant, in the real sense of it? That was the question I battled with coming to the election, with no interest in an answer other than the wonder it afforded me. His association with Oyetola reminds one of the 10th Law: Avoid the unhappy or the unlucky. What was in the contest in Osun was not the kind of candidate that Ambo was. It is a what, not a who. What was in the contest goes back to 2023 and beyond: Tinubu’s presidential ambition. That is why Adeleke had to give that many endorsements to Tinubu (to stave off his factor), why discerning political analysts continue to point to Tinubu and the larger context of Nigerian democracy. And it is true, this was an all-encompassing election, for many explainable reasons.
To me, it is the beginning of a three-part election: one for Adeleke, another for the local government chairpersons, and the last for Tinubu. Adeleke’s mandate is now sorted and, with it, the local government chairmanship. Last year, it became glaring that APC trusts too much in its federal might that they refused to vacate local government secretariats for the then PDP chairmen. Whatever it is that Adeleke could do, he held off, understandably because of his second term ambition. The 2026 gubernatorial election bore the imprint of the unresolved violence in the matter. Mr Sharafadeen Awotunde, the acting chairman of Ifelodun Local Government and the ALGON chair under Adeleke, was attacked at his polling unit yesterday for the obvious reason of what the election meant for people like him. With the re-election of Ademola Adeleke, it is now safe to say that a sustainable resolution will be achieved soon. The federal allocations, which have remained largely unaccounted for, in my opinion, should matter in public institutions now (and I look forward to what happens in this regard more than anything else).
Tinubu's second term bid is the last and the most difficult part. It will not be a cakewalk to get Osun voters to help Adeleke deliver his promise to Tinubu, which I suspect made the President less aggressive in supporting Ambo. Unlike 2022, Tinubu appears to concur with Law 19: Know who you’re dealing with, do not offend the wrong person. Adeleke is the wrong person to be offended by Tinubu, if Tinubu wants to win Osun in 2027. Otherwise, Atiku may well be voted in again. Yet, all of the cards are not in favor of Adeleke. One hour is a long time in politics; the five months between Adeleke's re-election and Tinubu's second term bid can only mean so much.
I do not expect a Fubara to be pulled on Adeleke but I expect that hostilities may grow between the governor and the president. And in the case that Tinubu wins his highly likely second term bid without Osun on his side, Adeleke may consider himself, if lucky, a Mamdani for the four years hence. All but Iragbiji will become Asiwaju's unseen area. Much of selective grace has been doled out to the otherwise sleepy town already, the most significant being the second federal university in Osun State. (It may also be argued that the omission of Ikirun for the university despite being the district head of Ifelodun, Boripe and Odo-Otin federal constituency made Ikirun indigenes turn against Oyetola.) The table turns now, however, and Adeleke finds himself in a position that Tinubu has been before: that place where an unusual alliance is needed but may as well be unacknowledged. It is Law 31 in effect: Control the options, get others to play with the cards you deal. But what will he accede to after now, Law 47 or Law 17?
About the Columnist
Taofeek Ọlálékan Ògúnpérí is a creative writer with a vested interest in politics, social engagement, new media, cyber culture, and literature. When Taofeek is not busy with something ancillary to the foregoing, he may be enjoying nature, watching a game of FC Barcelona or seeing a movie.
Views expressed by contributors are strictly personal and not of OBSERVERSMAG.
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